It has been a frenetic day in count centres throughout the country.
As votes have been sorted for counting, the tally men and women were busy making their notes. Based on their work, here are eight key takeaways so far as we head into the busiest evening of the election.
1) Ministerial Trouble
Despite a reasonable showing for Fianna Fáil in the RTÉ, Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin Exit Poll carried out by Ipsos B&A Exit Poll, Health Minister Stephen Donnelly is in danger of losing his seat, based on tallies from his Wicklow constituency.
Wicklow was a five-seater in 2020, but redrawn boundaries have left five outgoing TDs vying for four seats.
At midday, Stephen Donnelly was in seventh place in the tallies, and as the sole candidate for Fianna Fáil, he may struggle to catch up. Across the evening, his counts will be watched closely.
2) Wilting Greens
Another minister struggling is Green Party deputy leader Catherine Martin in Dublin Rathdown. She is well down the tally list, lying in sixth place in a constituency where she topped the poll in 2020.
Meanwhile, Minister for Integration Roderic O’Gorman is also under pressure. He’s in a battle to retain his seat in Dublin West.
“It’s clear the Green Party has not had a good day,” Mr O’Gorman said, speaking outside the Phibblestown Community Centre, where the count for his constituency is taking place.
Former party leader, Eamon Ryan, topped the poll in Dublin Bay South last time, but it is also looking increasingly unlikely that his replacement on the ticket, Hazel Chu, will hold the seat for the party.
How many Greens will be left by the time the counts conclude?
3) Baptism of the Monk?
Early tallies from Dublin Central showed that Gerard Hutch, known as ‘The Monk’, was very much in contention to pick up a seat in the hotly-contested constituency of Dublin Central.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald and Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe look safe there, while on initial viewing of tallies, the Social Democrats Gary Gannon seems to be having a good day too.
When he submitted his papers to run in the election, outgoing Taoiseach Simon Harris said Mr Hutch was a person who had brought misery and criminality to the capital, adding, “he’s not a celebrity, he’s a criminal”.
Ms McDonald said she “roundly” condemned Mr Hutch or anyone “involved in crime”.
During the campaign, Mr Hutch said he decided to run after encouragement from locals in the north inner city where he is originally from. He is the founder of the Corinthians Boxing Club in the Summerhill area of the inner city.
Mr Hutch was arrested in Spain in October as part of an investigation into money laundering activities. The case is still in progress.
4) Sinn Féin strategy
Much of the talk after the 2020 General Election was about Sinn Féin’s candidate strategy. Across the country, party candidates topped the polls with large surpluses, but without a running mate. With nowhere to send transfers, the party lost out on the potential to win additional seats.
This time round they’ve changed tack and have 71 candidates running nationwide. They will be hoping their candidate strategy will see them pick up additional seats through transfers, particularly in traditional Sinn Féin strongholds like Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan and Louth.
As the morning wore on, chirpy Sinn Féiners were popping up across the airwaves, proclaiming positivity about the potential for second – and even in some cases – third seats.
Sinn Féin’s Director of Elections says it seems possible they could emerge from the election as the largest political party.
“We are in play to increase our seats and who knows where we will land in the end,” Matt Carthy said.
We’ll be listening out for their reaction to the initial transfer patterns this evening.
5) Social climbing from the Soc Dems
Social Democrats’ party leader Holly Cairns was the longest-odds winner of a Dáil seat in 2020, but it looks like she will comfortably retain her seat in Cork South West.
And it looks like it will be a positive day for her party more broadly too. Despite the retirement of two of their highest-profile TDs ahead of the campaign – Róisín Shorthall and Catherine Murphy – the Exit Poll and tallies are bringing good news for the Social Democrats.
“It’s looking like a very good day for us,” said outgoing TD Catherine Murphy.
Speaking of her own five-seat constituency of Kildare North, she said that she is “delighted” to see that party colleague Aidan Farrelly is on track to take a seat.
6) I’m a Celebrity?
When Fianna Fáil announced the addition of broadcaster Gráinne Seoige and journalist Alison Comyn to the party tickets, it created a stir in both Galway West and Louth constituencies.
How those candidates will fare is still unclear, but based on tallies, Gráinne Seoige is in danger lying in joint seventh place with 45% of boxes accounted for in Galway West.
In Louth, Alison Comyn is faring slightly better, but lies in 6th place.
As always, it will not be tallies but the actual counts that will decide the seat outcome.
7) How will the newest parties fare?
Independent Ireland say it is in the hunt to pick up two extra seats.
Incumbent TDs, Michael Collins in Cork South West, Michael Fitzmaurice in Roscommon Galway, and Richard O’Donoghue in Limerick County, are on course to top the polls in their respective constituencies.
With 40% of boxes tallied in Galway West, Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas is outpolling incumbent independents Catherine Connolly and Noel Grealish.
Meanwhile, the party candidate in Cork North Central, Ken O’Flynn, is also in the mix. He currently lies in fourth place in the five-seater, but he will have to do well on transfers.
Beyond Independent Ireland, there’s the lesser-spotted 100% Redress party.
The local elections in June marked the first outing for their candidates, who campaign on behalf of homeowners whose properties have been destroyed by defective concrete products.
The party significantly secured four seats on Donegal County Council during the summer and early tallies suggest they could be celebrating their first TD by the time all the votes are counted this weekend. Charles Ward looks like he could be in contention to secure his road to Dáil Éireann.
8) Swing to the right? Not quite
Immigration was expected to be a major concern amongst the electorate in the lead-up to the General Election, with multiple candidates across the country running campaigns largely focused on the topic.
Of those candidates, it appears as though independents Malachy Steenson in Dublin Central and Stephen Kerr in Mayo will get the largest number of first preference votes, but tallies say it is unlikely either will be elected.
Mr Steenson was a prominent figure in the East Wall Says No group, which opposed the housing of asylum seekers at a former ESB office block in the East Wall area of Dublin. He also spoke at numerous anti-immigration marches in Dublin city and beyond in recent months.
Mr Kerr is associated with an online platform that primarily posts about immigration issues and anti-vaccine content. He missed out on a Mayo County Council seat despite a good showing in June, but he’s still in the mix for the last seat at the moment, but will need plenty of transfers.
