Eurovision Song Contest: Ireland’s Odds To Win In Malmo

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Charlie Mullan

Experience

I spent 11 years as a sports reporter at the Hull Daily Mail before spending a couple of years at the Press Association, where I helped set up their bespoke betting channel using sports data to provide content to accompany odds operators were offering in key matches. I now use a vast collection of sports data to help tell a story and highlight the best odds available in various sports at Gambling.com and bookmakers.co.uk.

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Last Updated: 
May 11, 2024

There was a time when Ireland could do no wrong in the Eurovision Song Contest. 

Johnny Logan won the contest twice as a singer in 1980 with ‘What’s Another Year’ and 1987 with the song ‘Hold Me Now’, as well writing ‘Why Me?’ for Linda Martin who won in 1992.

Along with Sweden, Ireland has won the competition a record seven times, and all those came in a 26-year span from 1970 to 1996 which will take some beating.

However, Irish fortunes have taken a turn for the worse to the point that Logan’s Midas touch wouldn’t have helped. A dreadful run of just one final appearance in nine contests has undone the good work done by Ireland in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. 

But it looks as though things are changing. New betting sites are giving this year’s entry a real chance of success.

This year, Ireland will be represented by Bambie Thug singing ‘Doomsday Blue’ and the country was trading at around 66/1 on specials betting sites to win an eighth Eurovision Song Contest title before qualification from Tuesday night’s semi-final was confirmed. 

Ireland’s odds to win Saturday’s final are now 25/1. 

Bambie Restores Irish Pride

Ireland was the dominant nation in the Eurovision Song Contest for almost three decades. Four wins in five years, included a three-peat from 1992 through to 1994 made their rivals green with envy.

However, the memories of those halcyon days in the 1990s are fading fast. To not come close to winning since finishing second in 1997 is a shock to a nation that took pride in the competition.

When the well ran dry for Ireland in the 1990s, jokes were made that because of the cost of hosting were too high, the country deliberately jeopardised their chances of winning.

You only have to look at the 2008 entry for evidence that supports that argument. Dustin The Turkey, a popular TV puppet, represented Ireland with ‘Irelande Douze Points’, but failed to qualify for the final.

Twins Jedward took to the stage three years later, who did qualify for the final, and finished eighth. That remains Ireland’s highest finish since 2001.

Now that Bambie Thug has reached this year’s final, Ireland’s second appearance in 10 years, there is a chance the Irish might just record their first top-five finish since 1997. 

Ireland Hanging On To Top-10 Spot

Despite not having a top-three finish since 1997, Ireland remain 10th in the Eurovision’s all-time points table.

However, there is a chance they lose their place in the top echelon of the competition this year from a number of countries.

In particular, Spain are breathing down their neck. The Spanish are just 71 points short of Ireland’s total, which includes jury votes and televoting. 

According to UK betting sites, Spain will struggle to impress the juries across Europe this year.

The contest has changed considerably since 1997, which marked the end of Ireland’s joy. 

Places in the final have to be earned via qualification from the semi-finals, unless you are one of the ‘Big-5’ of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.

In 1997, 25 countries took part, while this year’s contest will see 37 countries participate and it’s taken Ireland a while to build relationships with some of these new countries.

Established 1997

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Established 2001

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Established 2012

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Improvements Needed Way Out East

Since Eimear Quinn finished top of the leaderboard with ‘The Voice’ in 1996, 48 points clear of Norway in second place, 17 countries have made their debuts at the Eurovision Song Contest.

With the exception of Australia, who had their application to join the party accepted in 2015, the other 16 are eastern countries formed following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of communism and the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the USSR.

Remarkably, Ireland have found it difficult to win over these countries, with a total of just 43 points given to them from these countries in the last 26 years.

Latvia have accounted for 21 of those 43 points and 10 of those countries have yet to give the Irish any points, so far. 

Ireland on the other hand have sent 226 points the other way to these countries, with Latvia (65), Ukraine (46) and Bulgaria (26) the biggest recipients.

Can’t Rely On Old Favourites

Ireland have done well to maintain their relationship with established countries in the Eurovision Song Contest, but they can’t afford to rely on them for points forever, if they want to get their hands on the glass microphone trophy.

Like most countries taking part in the contest, the best partnership Ireland has, is with its nearest neighbour, the United Kingdom.

While giving the UK 205 points, a total of 220 has come back the other way.

Second on the list is Sweden (206), who along with the Irish, share the most wins by any country with seven.

Switzerland is Ireland’s third most giving nation with 162 points, while Norway (152) and Austria (148) complete the five countries that have given Ireland the most points since the current scoring system was put in place for the 1975 competition. 

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Last Updated: 
May 11, 2024