In its latest projection of the size of the population and the labour force, the CSO has looked at three different growth scenarios between now and 2057, using the census figures from 2022 as a base. The population on the last census night was 5,183,966 people.
Eva Leahy, a statistician in the Life Events and Demography Division, said: “This release differs from previous iterations in having a total of three scenarios, based on low, medium and high migration levels. There is an increase in population expected under all three. The size of the increase depends on which assumptions are being considered.”
The CSO worked from a net migration base of 75,000, as it was in 2022. In scenario one, net migration decreased to about 45,000 a year by 2027 and remained at this level for the next 30 years. This leads to a projected population growth of 1.8 million over the period, and a population of 7.01 million in 2057.
In the second scenario, migration decreases to about 30,000 a year by 2032 and remains at that level until 2057. This causes a population increase of 1.26 million, and a final number of 6.45 million.
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Under the ‘low migration’ scenario, the net number of arrivals decreases to 10,000 by 2032 and remains level. The result is a population increase of almost 550,000 and population in 2057 of 5.73 million people.
In all three scenarios, there are more deaths than births in the Irish population by the 2040s. In the six years to 2022 the excess of births over deaths was 27,900. By 2057 this is expected to have turned into a natural decrease in the population.
The fertility rate is going to decrease from its current 1.55 to 1.3 by 2037, and remain constant for the next two decades.
The CSO also says the number of people aged 65 or over is set to increase significantly, and will exceed 1 million by 2030. Mortality rates for men and women are expected to improve at a rate of 2.5pc per annum over the coming decades. These assumptions will result in gains in life expectancy from 80.2 years in 2022 to 86.2 years in 2057 for men, and from 83.9 to 89.1 years for women.
There were 781,000 over 65s in the last census, leading to an old age dependency ratio of 23pc. Under all three migration scenarios, the number of over 65s exceeds 1 million by 2032, and the dependency ratio rises to 27-28pc.
Under the ‘high migration’ scenario, the cohort of over 65s will grow to over 1.94 million by 2057. Under the ‘low migration’ scenario, it is still 1.81 million, which is set to put huge pressure on the pension schemes of the future.
