The rate of annual growth is expected to slow down, however, and has been in decline with the exception of the year 2020, which is thought to relate to Covid.
A report by Frontier Economics, prepared for ComReg, says a number of factors will influence the demand for mobile data. Firstly, the population is expected to increase by almost 4pc between now and 2028. Secondly, many people now have more than one mobile subscription, either because they have both a personal and a work phone, or because they need an additional connection for a device such as a smartwatch.
The number of mobile subscriptions per person increased from 1.01 in 2017 to 1.07 last year. Mobile handset connections are forecast to rise by 2pc every year, reaching 6.2 million by 2028.
People “increasingly use a mobile device to consume data-intensive activities such as social media, streaming HD content, and video calling,” the report points out. “Multi-player interactive gaming that was once available on consoles is now often done on mobile devices.”
It also says there are more commercial reasons for relying on mobile networks, including in farming, logistics, manufacturing and the smart meter roll-out.
A number of supply-related factors are set to increase the amount of mobile data traffic too, the report says. Operators can now use more of the spectrum than was available previously. This has allowed mobile operators to improve the performance of their 4G and 5G networks.
On the other hand, the gradual roll-out of fibre broadband to rural Ireland could reduce demand for mobile data services, the ComReg report points out. Some users who currently rely on mobile networks to get connectivity at a fixed location will be able to switch to National Broadband Ireland’s fibre network.
Mobile broadband connections are forecast to grow by 5pc each year to 2028, driven by the increase in the Irish population and because consumers are increasingly using mobile networks to support home broadband as 5G performance improves.
The number of mobile broadband connections is expected to reach almost 500,000 by 2028.
Machine-to-machine connections, which are used in devices such as smart meters and medical technology, are expected to grow by 9pc each year until 2028. The growth will be particularly fast this year, as the roll-out of smart meters is completed.
Mobile data usage per mobile handset increased from approximately 50 GB per subscription per year in 2017 to over 200GB last year. That is forecast to increase to 440GB by 2028.
