Ten key decisions for business that Jack Chambers has to make in Budget 2025

Here are 10 to look out for:

1. Do they hit the ‘old reliables’? Putting 10c or 20c on a package of cigarettes is a staple of most Budgets. But with over one-third of the cigarettes smoked now either illegal or non-Irish duty paid, hiking the price of fags may be self-defeating. A price increase might only create a further incentive for the black market, which would lead to a fall in Exchequer excise returns not an increase.
2. How about giving Love Island and the Late Late a tax break? The Tax Strategy Group has calculated that a tax credit for ‘unscripted’ TV productions could more than triple the value of investment in the industry here. The ‘unscripted’ sector includes reality TV and chat shows. Giving them a tax incentive, similar to the film industry’s, could create jobs and support studios.
3. Do they give EVs a tax break? Sales of electric vehicles have stalled, and the idea of having one million of them on the road by 2030 now looks highly unrealistic. It’s only €120 a year to tax an EV, but if there was no tax on them at all, might sales step up?
4. Or how about encouraging cycling? Sustainable travel is official policy, which is why there’s talk of extending free public transport to everyone aged under 9. Incentivising cycling is another possibility. Reducing Vat on bicycles of all types is one idea.
5. Back in 1997, Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy introduced a tax relief for investment in renewable energy generation. It helped stimulate the newly emerging green economy, but was scrapped in 2014. Might Minister Chambers reintroduce it?
6. Equity markets can play an important role in supporting the creation and take-off of new companies. So it’s a concern that the Irish stock exchange is in the doldrums, with far more departures than arrivals. Minister Chambers could do a number of things to help – such as abolishing stamp duty on trading in Irish shares, or providing tax reliefs against the considerable costs of having a company listed.
7. With Irish households sitting on billions of euro in savings that are generating little or no return, the Budget could provide incentives for small investors to take more risk with their cash. That, in turn, could help Irish companies. For example Minister Chambers could announce incentives for investments of up to, say, €50,000 in listed companies that have a small market capitalisation. Whatever you earn is yours to keep.
8. Owners of large family-owned businesses are waiting to see if Minister Chambers scraps plans to impose a capital gains tax (CGT) liability on the transfer of firms worth more than €10m from next year. With a whole series of crowd-pleasing measures in store, there is considerable optimism that this unpopular move will be reversed.
9. How much money is given to AHBs? Approved housing bodies are now playing a key role in the market, especially in providing social and affordable homes. They, and the Land Development Authority, are pretty much the only player left in the cost-rental sector. The amount of capital that Minister Donohoe allocates to the various funding streams for housing is being watched closely by the construction industry.
10. Also on housing, Minister Chambers may increase stamp duty on bulk purchases of residential properties by institutional investors. The rate is currently 10pc, with suggestions it might go to 15pc. On a day of giveaways and bonus payments, it might provide a rare moment of controversy.