The electricity grid operator has said the risk of there being insufficient power being generated to meet demand at times this winter is low.
EirGrid also said the possibility of system alerts, where the security of supply is at risk because of low wind and interconnector imports, will also be significantly lower than was anticipated last year.
The assessment, contained in Eirgrid’s annual Winter Outlook, marks a significant change on the position over the last couple of winters where it warned of a risk of possible disruption at periods of peak demand due to there being insufficient supply capacity.
The outlook covers the period between 4 November this year and 6 April next year and uses a formula to calculate the number of hours in a year where demand could surpass supply.
The report finds that this “Loss of Load Expectation” for this winter is 3.6 hours, well below the 21 hours predicted last winter and the 51 hours estimated for the winter before.
EirGrid said in both of those years there had never actually been an occasion where power cuts resulted from supply falling short of demand, although it did issue a number of amber or warning system alerts.
The 3.6 hours calculation for this winter is also above the standard set for Ireland of three hours, which was lowered from eight hours last year.
The median forecast peak demand for this winter is 5,834MW, which is higher than the record peak recorded last winter of 5,577MW.
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This, EirGrid says, is because demand from large energy users, particularly data centres, is rising despite an effective moratorium on the granting of new electricity and gas grid connections in the greater Dublin region.
New housing is also adding to peak demand, the grid operator said.
“Ireland’s energy demands are monitored by EirGrid’s National Control Centre which carefully balances supply and demand at all times,” said Diarmaid Gillespie, director of system operations at EirGrid.
“Ensuring there is sufficient generation to meet electricity demand can be a challenging task, particularly during the colder winter months.”
“It’s positive to see that the situation has improved considerably this winter compared to previous years.”
EirGrid said the situation has improved because 505MW of temporary emergency generation has now come online, to be used if required.
This includes sites in North Wall in Dublin, Huntstown in Dublin, Shannonbridge in Co Offaly and Tarbert in Co Kerry.
While a further 190MW of new gas fired generators in Poolbeg, Irishtown and Corduff in Dublin and 270MW of new batteries with two to three hours of capacity in locations such Aghada in Cork and Poolbeg and Irishtown, have also been made available.
The contribution of 425MW of new renewable generation has also been considered for this winter, but EirGrid derates wind and solar in its calculations because it is not as reliable.
“The securing of new generators and battery storage units through the Capacity Market, and Temporary Emergency Generation has been key to delivering this improved position,” Mr Gillespie said.
“While the situation was more challenging last year, there was only one system alert due to reduced generation capacity margins and no system emergency during Winter 2023/24.”
“This was due to daily engagement and reciprocal support arrangements with transmission system operators in Great Britain and Continental Europe.”
