Muted celebrations from Jack McCaffrey (c), Killian McGinnis and Mick Fitzsimons (right) after Dublin’s record 14th Leinster SFC title in a row last May in Croke Park. Photo: Harry Murphy/Sportsfile
Nassim Nicholas Taleb and the Leinster Senior Football Championship share a link that the flaneur, best-selling author and infamous former options trader has likely never mused upon. Taleb writes extensively on the impact of the Black Swan. The Leinster SFC is in desperate need of a Black Swan.
To curtly paraphrase the Lebanese man, one characteristic of a Black Swan is an event so rare that the possibility that it may occur is not considered. Taleb suggests we “consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race ‘looking out for its best interests,’ as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Christmas (or Thanksgiving for his American audience), something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.”
