Several of the smaller parties are expected to make gains in this election, with the Social Democrats in the hunt for several new seats, Independent Ireland is hoping to double its TDs while Labour is also in contention in a pair of Dublin constituencies.
The Social Democrats were in the hunt for major gains, with several chances for new seats appearing across the country as early votes were tallied.
Independent Ireland could win several seats in the Dáil, with early tallies indicating the party’s incumbent TDs and some newcomers were polling well. Party leader Michael Collins said they were “looking good” to hold on to their three seats and could be in a position to double that number in this election.
Labour was also in contention to win extra seats, with the party believing it is in a position to pick up TDs in Dublin Fingal West and Dublin South-West.
Social Democrats hoping for major gains
Aidan Farrelly and Rory Hearne were well-placed to retain former Social Democrats co-leaders Catherine Murphy and Róisín Shortall’s seats in Kildare North and Dublin North-West, according to tallies.
In Limerick City, a final tally suggested local councillor Elisa O’Donovan could snap up the fourth seat, with the Green Party’s Brian Leddin expected to lose his seat. However, only a handful of votes separated Ms O’Donovan from the two candidates sitting below her in that tally.
Ms O’Donovan was one of the candidates impacted by an error on the Limerick City ballot paper, which saw candidates with surnames beginning with ‘O’ appearing below the ‘Q’ candidates. If the final vote is very close, it is possible that the result could be challenged.
Meanwhile in Cork South-Central, early tallies suggested Pádraig Rice was in contention to fight for the fifth seat. Sinead Gibney in Dublin Rathdown, Joan Hopkins in Dublin Fingal East, Liam Quaide in Cork East, and Jen Cummins in Dublin South-Central were also all potential chances for the Social Democrats to win new seats.
The party would also be hoping there is a chance in Carlow-Kilkenny, where Patricia Stephenson is running, Mary Roche in Waterford and Eoin Ó Broin in Dublin Mid-West.
Figures ‘cracking up the right way’ for Independent Ireland
Independent Ireland could win up to five seats in the Dáil, with early tallies indicating the party’s incumbent TDs and some newcomers are polling well.
The party’s outgoing TDs – Mr Collins in Cork South-West, Michael Fitzmaurice in Roscommon-Galway, and Richard O’Donoghue in Limerick County – were on course to top the polls in their respective constituencies.
However, they could add even more seats. With 40% of boxes tallied in Galway West, Noel Thomas was outpolling incumbent Independents Catherine Connolly and Noel Grealish. The former Fianna Fáil councillor – who is running this time for Independent Ireland – had 13% of first preference votes, although that tally did include his home parish of Maigh Cuilinn.
The Independent Ireland candidate in Cork North-Central, Ken O’Flynn, is also in the mix to take a seat in the constituency.
With 62.5% of boxes tallied there, Mr O’Flynn had 9.3% of first preferences. That put him in fourth place in a five-seater constituency, but he would need to do well on transfers to secure an additional seat for the fledgling party.
Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins said earlier this morning that “at the moment, the figures are cracking up the right way” for him. The latest tally figures indicated that Mr Collins was topping the poll at 23.6% in his constituency of Cork South-West, ahead of Social Democrats’ leader Holly Cairns who was at roughly 20%.
“At the present moment, the sitting TDs are looking good, but that’s not the way it might stay.”
He said that he was not disappointed by Independent Ireland’s Exit Poll figure of 2%. “Obviously we would have loved to have the figures higher, but we’re a new party,” he said.
“Taking Dublin alone, so if there was somebody taking the poll at every constituency in Dublin, we have only one candidate in Dublin, so they would have gotten a very distorted figure.”
Independent Ireland was founded in November 2023 by then-Independent TDs Richard O’Donoghue and Michael Collins. The party had a boost this year when they won 23 seats in the local elections and a seat in the European Parliament.
Labour hoping to win extra seats
The wave behind the Labour Party was not expected to be as powerful as for some of the other smaller parties, but the party was still hoping to make gains in Dublin.
In Dublin Fingal West, Robert O’Donoghue emerged from the final tally in second position, with 16.2% of the first preference votes. However, it was a tight race with two other candidates hovering around the 15% mark, so it was likely to be a close battle for the second and third seats and transfers will be important.
Here, a win for Labour would likely come at the expense of outgoing Green TD Joe O’Brien, who looks likely to lose his seat at just 6.2%, according to the same tally.
Meanwhile in Dublin South-West, Labour was also hoping Ciarán Ahern could pick up a seat.
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