This piece will update regularly. RTÉ, Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin Exit Poll carried out by Ipsos B&A.
The data from the Ipsos B&A Exit Poll, released just as ballot boxes were locked across the country on Friday night, provides an indication of where respondents said they cast their first preference vote and their initial transfers.
No poll is perfect, but exit polls are broadly considered more reliable than other types of polling, as they are conducted immediately after the person has cast their vote.
Some 5,018 people filled out the polling form from Ipsos B&A, which gives the Exit Poll a calculated margin of error of +/-1.4%.
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The graph below shows how the Exit Poll share of first preferences compares with other polling conducted during the course of the election campaign itself.
Click on a pollster or hover over a circle for additional information.
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With the three big parties bunched tightly around 20%, transfers will prove crucial as counts develop across the country on Saturday and Sunday, and potentially into early next week too.
With that in mind, Ipsos B&A also asked respondents to say where they sent their second preferences.
This chart shows where people who cast their first preferences for either Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin said they wrote ‘2’ on the ballot paper.
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That visualisation shows how people placed their second preferences, when they have their first preferences for one of the three big parties.
This one below covers all the parties, and adds third preferences. It’s where people said they place ‘2’ after they decided their first preference, and also then 3. Not for the fainthearted, and best-viewed using the drop-down menu for individual parties.
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The respondents provided basic personal details to the polling team, allowing a further tranche of data analysis to be conducted in relation to preferences by age demographics.
Younger voters told Ipsos B&A they had a clear preference for Mary Lou McDonald to lead the next government, but that preference shifts towards the leaders of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael parties among the older demographics.
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Party preferences also shift according to age. This visualisation below shows exit poll data on first preference share among each age category.
You can click into each individual category to get an idea of how they differ.
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Any lastly for now, if you’re interested in any differences between men and women, here you go. This is the gender split for the first three declared preferences.
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Stay up to date here for more charts.
