A range of Independent TDs are contemplating the prospect of entering the State’s next coalition government as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael consider ways to secure a solid majority.
Three long days of counting in the election finished late on Monday night when the final two seats were declared in the constituency of Cavan-Monaghan.
Fianna Fáil was the clear winner of the election, securing 48 of the Dáil’s 174 seats.
Sinn Fein took 39 and Fine Gael 38.
Labour and the Social Democrats both won 11 seats; People Before Profit-Solidarity took three; Aontú secured two; and the Green Party retained only one of its 12 seats. Independents and others accounted for 21 seats.
The return of a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael-led coalition is now highly likely.
However, their combined seat total of 86 leaves them just short of the 88 needed for a majority in the Dáil.
While the two centrist parties that have dominated Irish politics for a century could look to strike a deal with one of the Dáil’s smaller centre-left parties, such as the Social Democrats or Labour, a more straightforward route to a majority could be achieved by securing the support of several Independent TDs.
For Fianna Fáil leader Micheal Martin and current taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris, wooing like-minded Independents would be likely to involve fewer policy concessions, and financial commitments, than would be required to convince another party to join the government benches.
Longford-Westmeath independent TD Kevin “Boxer” Moran, who served in a Fine Gael-led minority government between 2017 and 2020, expressed his willingness to listen to offers to join the new coalition in Dublin.
“Look, my door’s open,” he told RTÉ. “Someone knocks, I’m always there to open it.”
Marian Harkin, an independent TD for Sligo-Leitrim, expressed her desire to participate in government as she noted that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were within “shouting distance” of an overall majority.
“That means they will be looking for support, and I certainly will be one of those people who will be speaking to them and talking to them and negotiating with them, and I’m looking forward to doing that, because that was the reason that I ran in the first place,” she said.
Meanwhile, the Social Democrats and Labour Party both appear cautious about the prospect of an alliance both parties.
They will no doubt be mindful of the experience of the Green Party, the junior partner in the last mandate. The Greens experienced near wipeout in the election, retaining only one of their 12 seats.
Sinn Féin appears to currently have no realistic route to government, given Fianna Fail and Fine Gael’s ongoing refusal to share power with the party.
Despite the odds being stacked against her party, Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald contacted the leaders of the Social Democrats and Labour on Monday to discuss options.
Earlier, Fianna Fáil deputy leader and outgoing Finance Minister Jack Chambers predicted that a new coalition government would not be in place before Christmas.
Mr Chambers said planned talks about forming an administration required “time and space” to ensure that any new government will be “coherent and stable”.
After an inconclusive outcome to the 2020 election, it took five months for Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens to strike the last coalition deal.
Mr Chambers said he did not believe it would take that long this time, as he noted the Covid-19 pandemic was a factor in 2020, but he also made clear it would not be a swift process.
He said he agreed with analysis that there was no prospect of a deal before Christmas.
“I don’t expect a government to be formed in mid-December, when the Dáil is due to meet on December 18th, probably a Ceann Comhairle (speaker) can be elected, and there’ll have to be time and space taken to make sure we can form a coherent, stable government,” he told RTÉ.
“I don’t think it should take five months like it did the last time – Covid obviously complicated that. But I think all political parties need to take the time to see what’s possible and try and form a stable government for the Irish people.”
Fine Gael minister of state Peter Burke said members of his parliamentary party would have to meet to consider their options before giving Mr Harris a mandate to negotiate a new programme for government with Fianna Fail.
“It’s important that we have a strong, stable, viable government, whatever form that may be, to ensure that we can meet the challenges of our society, meet the challenges in terms of the economic changes that are potentially going to happen,” he told RTE.
Despite being set to emerge with the most seats, it has not been all good news for Fianna Fail.
The party’s outgoing Health Minister Stephen Donnelly became one of the biggest casualties of the election when he lost his seat in Wicklow in the early hours of Monday morning.
Mr Donnelly was always predicted to face a fight in the constituency after boundary changes saw it reduced from five to four seats.
