Fine Gael strategists are targeting an unexpected seat gain for the party in Dublin Bay South should the disgraced Social Democrats TD Eoin Hayes ‘do the right thing and go’.
Emma Blain, who ran credibly for Fine Gael in the recent general election, has been chosen by the party as Lord Mayor of Dublin, to replace the newly elected TD James Geoghegan.
The move was made against a backdrop of increasing speculation that Mr Hayes – who was suspended by the Soc Dems after he lied about a €199,000 share payout from a company that works with the Israel Defences Forces – may resign from the Dáil.
Sinn Féin, which lost a seat in the constituency that Chris Andrews failed to retain, is demanding a by-election on the basis Mr Hayes was elected under false pretences. Observers across all parties believe there will be an early by-election in Dublin Bay South and other parties are targeting an unexpected gain.
One Fine Gael source said: ‘If I was a defeated candidate in that constituency I would be keeping my powder dry and my posters in the garden shed.’
Another Government source summarised the scenario with the verdict that ‘Mr Hayes is a walking by-election’.
‘HE IS A WALKING BY-ELECTION’
They warned: ‘He faces a nightmare in Leinster House.
‘The Social Democrats don’t want him. He has seriously damaged their “sugar and spice, and Holly Cairns is all things nice” image. The Independents definitely don’t want him. No one will want him.’
Figures within the Regional Independents group moved to dispel the possibility that Mr Hayes might join them after Michael Lowry was seen talking to the TD in the Dáil chamber.
One source connected to the group said: ‘I don’t think he would be on the same page as us on much and that’s coming from both sides.’
Another noted: ‘It was just a moment of human empathy. Micheál Martin talked to him too. Do you think there’s an invitation winging its way into Hayes from Fianna Fáil HQ? I don’t think so.’
Unlike other disgraced politicians who go into temporary exile from their parties, it is expected that the Social Democrat ‘severance package’ will be permanent.
SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
One Dáil veteran, referring to the current RTÉ environment correspondent George Lee, who became a Fine Gael TD but left politics after nine months because he had ‘virtually no influence or input’, warned that Mr Hayes ‘will be very like Lee, wandering around without standing or purpose’. ‘How long can he take that?’ they added.
They warned: ‘There will be no happy ending with the Social Democrats; the Social Democrats don’t do happy endings.
‘Politically he can’t be taken back. The issue of Palestine is a huge element of the identity of Holly Cairns.
‘He also left Gary Gannon and the deputy leader Cian O’Callaghan looking like clowns.’
One Fianna Fáil source unsympathetically warned: ‘He now resides in the space previously occupied by Stephen Donnelly: the morgue of the politically unforgiven. At some stage the penny is bound to drop. He has no future here. He has no future in Dublin Bay South. They don’t like failure there.’
One expert in the internecine politics of the wealthiest constituency in the country warned: ‘It is a merciless place. Doors that once were open will be closed. The best thing Hayes can do is, like George Lee when he returned to RTÉ, escape back to the private sector quick as he can.’
‘ESCAPE BACK TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR’
In the event of a by-election, Sinn Féin would be initial favourites to retain the seat. However, one constituency source warned: ‘Dublin Bay South is not a Sinn Féin constituency. That’s an accidental Sinn Féin seat built on a traditional Andrews and Fianna Fáil core vote. There is a Social Democrat vote there.’
But Fine Gael will have designs on winning the second seat via the candidacy of Ms Blain, with one source noting: ‘She is the new Kate O’Connell. In fact, she is better than [ex-Fine Gael TD] Kate O’Connell. The old dowagers and matriarchs love her.’
The mayoral vacancy occurred after Mr Geoghegan took a seat in a constituency which, having supplied two Fine Gael taoisigh, John A Costello and Garret FitzGerald, is perceived to be the spiritual heartland of the party. One Fine Gael source noted: ‘There is no reason that, like Dublin Rathdown and Dún Laoghaire, we shouldn’t have two seats here. One is respectable but two are far better.’
Significantly as he slalomed from sixth place on the first count to the fourth and final seat, Mr Hayes only saw off Ms Blain by 400 votes. The seat would also be in the sights of the Greens’ Hazel Chu, who, at 8.17%, performed above the party’s national trend.
One source said: ‘Hazel Chu, Emma Blain, Kate [O’Connell] and Sinn Féin are lining up to replace him. There’s no shortage of alternatives.’
It is believed that after the previous by-election of 2021, in which Fianna Fáil’s Deirdre Conroy finished fifth, her party will not be targeting the seat.
