The Director General of the International Air Travel Association has said that environmental impact is the number one issue for the aviation industry but that he expects net emissions from aviation will not fall “before 2040.”
Speaking at the Institute of International and European Affairs, Willie Walsh said he expects the supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to “ramp up” after 2030, and most of the reduction in aviation will come from SAF.
He said the aviation sector has switched its 2050 goal to Net Zero and now accepts the previous target of a 50% reduction by then was not in line with the science.
He said nearly all of the reduction in emissions would have to come through switching to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) as it will not come from improvements in aircraft design.
He said reaching Net Zero by 2050 will be “extremely challenging and very expensive.” He estimated the cost at $47 trillion or an average of $174m per year from now to 2050. He said the industry cannot absorb that and will have to pass on the cost to the consumer.
He said he does not expect hydrogen to play a major role before 2050, and electrically propelled aircraft will be viable only for shorter regional routes that do not contribute much to the overall emissions from aviation.
He described the passenger cap on Dublin Airport as “a joke” and said it is not related to the infrastructure at the airport. Mr Walsh added, “this is something that could only happen in Ireland”.
He said, “it is very disappointing, very frustrating, and hopefully we’ll see some common sense on this”.
He said the Government (possibly not this Government but the next government) will have to take a long-term view on capacity at Dublin Airport.
Mr Walsh agreed with a suggestion that the airport should be designated as critical infrastructure and that the proposal for the Minister for Infrastructure could be “a great idea and very important.”
He said air traffic control integration, as set out under the Single European Sky plan, could reduce emissions from aviation in Europe by 10% overnight and would not require massive investment or new technology.
He said the only thing preventing this happening is a lack of political will and he found it very frustrating that politicians who tell the industry it must reduce emissions are not prepared to act on this.
He said there is not sufficient production of SAF in Europe, and most airlines who are serious about using it are buying it in the US.
He added that in Europe, the approach is to mandate the use of SAF, but “mandating the use of something that is not available is madness.”
He said sustainable aviation fuel represents a great opportunity for Ireland because of the abundance of renewable energy resources here.
