Imagine being in the camps of today’s quarter-finalists as they watched the matches yesterday and digested what has happened to the All-Ireland race.
PJ’s Galway had blown the door off the hinges. Suddenly both matches take on even greater significance as the possibility of All-Ireland final berths and the title itself becomes so much more attainable.
Derry v Kerry in 2023 was the game of the year. Rewinding the clock to that semi-final weekend last year, it’s fair to say expectations were at the lower end of things. Derry and Monaghan both played their underdog parts with gusto.
Kerry and Dublin for their part appeared to play with one eye on the presumptive final against each other and at a level down from respective quarter-final ties where old rivals Tyrone and Mayo had stoked the fires of performance.
The set-up for this year’s Kerry v Derry instalment is very different. Kerry have played no team within the top eight of the country. They badly need a test even if that test could land them out on their rear end.
Top teams tend to need the prospect of battle against a foe they view as a rival to bring out their best. The week leading into such games are a very different feeling from anything else. There is an unmistakable energy in the air, equal parts tension, anxiety and excitement.
Sports psychologists may say negative motivation is not the way to go, but for championship football it remains the ultimate way of ensuring a team is ready to play.
And Kerry, last year against Tyrone, were ready to play.
When Kerry play with real intensity and aggression they are something else. We haven’t seen that this year so far, simply because there has been no opponent there yet that lights those fuses.
Derry, I reckon, will.
That semi-final last year was a huge battle. Rewatching it this week the quality of play at times, especially in the first half was top drawer. Yet I got the feeling at the time that Kerry were not in the same gear they were in for Tyrone.
Derry last year was the new kid on the block and just something to be taken care of. For me Kerry’s lack of recognition of them as a key threat give Derry the chance and but for some wayward shooting, they could’ve taken it.
Much was made in the aftermath that Derry were the better team and Kerry were lucky. A brief look at history suggests Kerry don’t forget such slights.
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Kerry v Derry, 2023 All-Ireland SFC semi-final highlights
I think this is exactly what was behind the common Kerry opinion that Derry was the ideal draw for them. Not only did Derry tick the box of being a big opponent and a proper test but last year’s post game narrative put added skin in the game.
There are challenges for them, not least that last year’s game depended on a David Clifford masterclass and the princely one hasn’t yet been hitting those levels this year. ‘Yet’ being the key word.
Due to their attacking ace, attention usually switches to questions around their midfield and defence. I don’t see these as critical weaknesses, certainly not for this one.
The one presumed meaningful game they had in their group was against Monaghan. The way they went about their business in the first half before they realised Monaghan hadn’t decided to turn up was hugely impressive.
They were working in a well-drilled defensive system, covering across with energy and tackling with aggression then breaking with ruthlessness. It was imperious stuff and, though short-lived, it’s that I expect to be rolled out now for the final run in.
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Highlights of Kerry’s win over Monaghan
If Kerry have questions to answer, where do you start with Derry. Their turnaround against Mayo was so impressive that you can only admire the emergency work done by Mickey Harte’s management team and the players over those brief few weeks to both stem the blood and start to repair the broken parts.
The toughest thing sometimes is figuring out what went wrong. Why had the tactics that had served them so well, the high press on kick-outs and pushing all forward when attacking turned out to be such an Achilles heel in the Donegal and Armagh games when it hadn’t caused them damage previously?
Was it a tactical issue that opponents had figured them out and how to expose it or had their performance levels through loss of individual form and drop in energy been the kryptonite.
As ever the truth is somewhere in between. The stats show no major change in performance last year compared to this in common metrics like turnovers, attack:shot and shot:score ratios. The massive outliers were what they conceded off those turnovers in the Armagh game or off kickouts in the Donegal game.
Goals, goals and a few more goals.
Crucially the energy reappeared during that Mayo game, while form lines of key players like Conor Glass, Brendan Rodgers and Shane McGuigan showed a definite uptick. The return of Gareth McKinless, Eoin McEvoy and Ethan Doherty from suspension/injury has been important too.
The gameplan was tweaked with Odhran Lynch hanging back on kickout presses and a shade more protection when up the pitch (with a wee pinch of tactical fouling just for taste). It worked and it has got them back on track.
The problem for them was that last year’s gameplan against Kerry worked to a ‘T’. It’s hard to imagine that playing the handbrake applied version of themselves as they did against Mayo will work against Kerry. Are they brave enough to go for it? When you say what’s the worst could happen, well Derry know too well and Kerry have the exact tools to cut them to shreds should they get the balance wrong.
One factor I don’t see as an issue is Derry’s perceived tiredness. The weight lifted off those Derry players shoulders with that win in Castlebar and the injection of energy that would have come with it is worth way more than any rest weekend.
The confidence though will be fragile. Kerry will target this. Galway’s stunning result yesterday served to focus Kerry’s minds. Dublin had chances to put Galway to bed early on and the longer they failed to do it the stronger Galway came.
In Castlebar, Mayo allowed Derry to settle into the game with a passive first half. So Kerry will come out strong. Derry will want to stay in the fight so will likely sit tight for as long as possible.
Derry will see Dublin’s loss as a sign that the dream All-Ireland is still on. Those wee flames of belief, relit in Castlebar, can turn into an inferno if Kerry give them air.
Kerry, yearning for their big game, forewarned by their great rivals shock loss and wanting to sort the perceived slights from last year, should get the job done. After yesterday of course who can be sure of anything? And isn’t the whole thing the better for it!
Championship 2024 is on!
Watch the All-Ireland Football Championship quarter-finals, Donegal v Louth (1.15pm) and Kerry v Derry (3.15pm), on Sunday from 12.45pm on RTÉ One and RTÉ Player, follow a live blog on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app and listen to commentary on Sunday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
