Dr Pat McCloughan, managing director of PMCA Economic Consulting, says he is “absolutely standing over the report”.
He claims the proposed restrictions on cars will lead to a €141m reduction in retail spending in the city centre by 2028 with the loss of 1,787 retail jobs.
His analysis was commissioned by the Dublin City Centre Traders Alliance, which includes the owners of several city-centre car parks.
The report has been criticised by groups in favour of the transport plan, and also by councillors, including Deputy Lord Mayor Donna Cooney, who said it was “based, in my opinion, on all sorts of unevidenced premises,”
‘He’s a junior academic economist, and should be concentrating on publications. I am a professional economist’
The most serious criticism has come from Dr Barra Roantree, programme director of the MSc in economic policy at Trinity College Dublin.
In an article in The Journal, he said the negative assessment of the transport plan was based on a “deeply flawed methodology, underpinned by dubious assumptions that don’t stand up to the most simple scrutiny.”
Asked to respond, Dr McCloughan said he took the criticism with a pinch of salt.
“He’s a junior academic economist, and should be concentrating on publications, and getting research into his department and university. I am a professional economist. I earn my living by providing reports.”
Dr McCloughan said his report was not a cost-benefit analysis of traffic restrictions, which should have been done by Dublin City Council before they introduced the transport plan.
“My report looks at the economic impacts, it doesn’t look at everything like carbon emissions and so on.
“A full financial analysis, under the public spending code, should have been done, but that’s probably a few weeks’ work, a month’s work.”
‘The work I do is fast-paced. You go from one to the other – that’s the nature of economic consulting’
Two years ago, PMCA was commissioned by traders in Lucan to do a similar evidence-based economic report on proposed changes to the town centre, including the loss of 11 car spaces on Main Street.
PMCA concluded there would be an estimated €8.12m loss in retail spend, resulting in 312 job losses, or over half of the jobs in Lucan village.
Dr McCloughan said he was still “happy with the findings” but the report was now “ancient history” as far as he was concerned.
“You move on. The work I do is fast- paced. You go from one to the other – that’s the nature of economic consulting.”
The economist rejected any suggestion he is a “gun for hire”, saying he turns down commissions when there is no prima facie case or evidence.
“Sometimes when you look at a piece of work you might say ‘there’s no chance of that happening’ and you would advise a client and say ‘sorry I can’t help you with it’. That happens. I am not there just to take money off clients, absolutely not.”
Supporters of the council’s transport plan have argued that any retail spending lost to the city centre will simply be displaced.
However, Dr McCloughan said: “People may do their shopping online, from Germany or the UK, so there might be a loss then to the economy. It’s hard to know.
“The city-centre traders are in competition with out-of-town and suburban shopping centres, and with online shopping, both inside and outside the State.
“So if people are less inclined to go into the city centre and maybe go to the outskirts of Dublin or elsewhere, there will be impacts.”
