The research warns that at 3C of warming – the direction the world is heading under current climate trends – deaths from heat-related medical conditions here will rise from 30 to 563 annually.
Increased heat-related deaths are expected right across Europe but while most regions will have fewer deaths related to cold weather, Ireland can expect them to almost double from 3,974 annually to 7,696.
The researchers explained this is because Ireland is “disadvantaged by a marked ageing of its population” with older people more vulnerable to cold.
“Global warming won’t ‘save lives’ as some misguided people suggest,” said Dr Emma Lawrence of Imperial College London who reviewed the study.
“This research estimates that the number of heat-related deaths will continue to ramp up if humans keep warming the planet, while the number of cold-related deaths will only decrease slightly.”
The research was carried out by the European Commission with universities in Spain, Italy and the UK and is published in the journal, Lancet Public Health.
It is one of the most extensive modelling projects carried out in Europe, covering 1,368 regions including 854 cities.
The study calculates the likely change in temperature-related deaths under four warming scenarios – a 1.5C increase which is approaching, 2C which could happen by mid-century, 3C which is forecast by 2100 and an almost unthinkable 4C.
Overall, cold-related deaths would fall from 363,809 to 333,703 under a 3C rise but heat-related deaths would increase from 43,729 to 207,452.
Professor Patrick Goodman, a senior lecturer at TU Dublin and an expert on measuring public health, said the very large volume of data gathered made for a strong piece of research. He also noted that the forecast deaths in Ireland were based on a gradual, general rise in temperatures.
“Heatwave events could give rise to spikes in addition to what projections are presented in the paper,” he said.
The authors said: “Our results suggest that climate change could pose unprecedented challenges to public health systems, especially during periods of extreme heat.”
