The aviation regulator has confirmed it plans to limit airline seat capacity at Dublin Airport to 25.2m next summer, around 1m less than the same period this year.
The step has been taken to ensure Dublin Airport remains within its 32m a year passenger cap.
But it is likely to frustrate airlines including Ryanair and Aer Lingus, who wish to grow their capacity at the airport, not cut it.
Last month the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) proposed to cap the summer seat numbers at 25.2m and since then it put the proposal out to consultation.
Airlines warned that if the proposal went ahead, it would lead to fewer routes and potentially higher prices for passengers jetting off on their summer holidays.
“To take account of the capacity constraint represented by the planning condition set by An Bord Pleanála, the IAA has set a seat capacity limit of 25.2 million seats for the Summer 2025 scheduling season,” the IAA said in a statement confirming it is proceeding with the plan today.
“This is in line with what the IAA proposed in its Draft Decision and the proposal put forward by daa, the operator of Dublin Airport, during the deliberations of the coordination committee, in which daa also stated that the IAA should have regard to the condition.”
“The members of the coordination committee include Dublin Airport and the air carriers using Dublin Airport.”
The decision follows an earlier one by the IAA to limit winter seat capacity at the airport to 14.4m, the first time it had put such a cap on aircraft take-off and landing slots.
Taken together, it means a total of 39.6m seats will be available across the two seasons, which is higher than the 32m a year cap in place on the airport because not all flights are full and passengers transferring are also not included.
“The IAA anticipates that the demand for slots for the Summer 2025 scheduling season will significantly exceed the 25.2m seat cap,” said the IAA.
“In line with the Slot Regulation, air carriers who have operated series of slots (5 weeks or longer) in the Summer 2024 season will be given priority, on initial coordination, in relation to those series for Summer 2025.”
“However, the IAA anticipates that not all slot series from Summer 2024 will be capable of being accommodated within the seat cap.”
It added that the decision would likely mean there will be very little capacity for new or ad-hoc slot requests, like for special flights to sporting fixtures for example.
The 32m passenger cap was put in place in 2007 as part of the planning permission for the second terminal at the airport.
“The role of the IAA does not encompass any powers to amend or revoke planning conditions or make any decision to enforce or not enforce conditions,” it said.
“These are all matters to be determined by the planning authorities, such as Fingal County Council.”
It added that were the planning condition not in place it would be declaring a significantly higher capacity for next summer.
“Accordingly, this would facilitate all Summer 2024 slot series, and anticipated growth and new entrants in the Season, including ad hoc slots,” it claimed.
Airlines and Dublin Airport operator, daa, is ratcheting up pressure on the Government to take steps to have the cap lifted, something the Government has repeatedly claimed it cannot do, because this would involve interfering in a legal planning process.
Dublin Airport has made an application to Fingal County Council to have the cap increased to 40m a year as part of an infrastructure development plan.
However, it is likely to take a number of years before a decision is made.
In a statement, daa welcomed the IAA’s decision.
It said while the move to cap seats next summer is bad for Irish jobs, the economy and connectivity, it should help Dublin Airport to comply with planning in 2025.
“Had the IAA not made this decision as slots regulator, daa would continue to be left holding the problem of trying to comply with planning laws but without a solution in its power,” it said.
The airport operator said it is now reviewing the decision and awaiting the detailed supporting document which is due to be published later this week.
Kenny Jacobs, CEO of daa said the decision will have financial consequences for Ireland.
“We estimate the damage to the economy to be at least €500 million, increasing to €700 million if we consider lost airfares too,” he said.
“There are also real consequences for airlines, people working at the airport and the travelling public, as well as knock-on impacts on tourism and jobs.
“This issue is no longer just an airport or a planning issue, it is now an Ireland issue,” he added.
Mr Jacobs said lifting the passenger cap to 40 million passengers a year is in line with national aviation policy, the Fingal Development Plan and the Dublin Airport Local Area Plan.
“But while we wait for planning permission for this, we support the IAA’s decision to cut seats despite the consequences for Ireland,” he said.
daa said it has asked the High Court to review the IAA’s winter slot decision to avoid Dublin Airport exceeding the 32 million cap this year.
However, Ryanair claimed the IAA decision was unlawful and condemned the “inaction” by the Minister for Transport and Minister for Tourism over the passenger cap.
It said they should resign “in light of their failure to transport and tourism.”
“The Dublin Airport cap is in breach of the EU right to freedom of movement, and is also in breach of the EU/US Open Skies Agreement,” said Michael O’Leary, Ryanair Group CEO.
“We have no doubt that this absurd 17 year old restriction (which was solely deigned to allay road traffic “concerns” which no longer exist) will be thrown out by the European Courts.”
While Aer Lingus said it is opposed to the approach taken by the IAA in respect of the planning conditions relating to the passenger cap in its summer 2025 capacity decision.
“More specifically, Aer Lingus does not agree with the IAA’s conclusion that these Planning Conditions are matters which the IAA is required to take account of in declaring capacity at Dublin Airport or that the IAA has any legal basis for removing historic slots,” it said.
“Aer Lingus has already challenged IAA’s previous decision relating to winter 2024 capacity at Dublin Airport by way of a judicial review and a hearing is due to take place in December.”
“Aer Lingus is continuing to assess both the potential impact on its operations of the IAA’s decision reducing capacity for summer 2025 and its legal options regarding that reduction.”
