Louth seem a better team this year but they are still some way off having the ability or nous to really challenge a Kerry team with an All-Ireland quarter-final and beyond firmly in their sights
Twelve months ago the teams met at the exact same stage in the Championship at the very same venue and Kerry hockeyed Louth out the gate with a 28-point beating. Now, a year can be a very long time in Gaelic football, and while Kerry clearly have plenty more to find in their performances (and one imagines they will when the need arises), and Louth’s arc has clearly continues upward in the last year, can anyone conceivably see how 28 points is going to be trimmed to anything that might convert into a competitive contest on Sunday?
In an odd way, the fact that Louth have already guaranteed their passage out of Group 4 could make matter worse in terms of Sunday being competitive. Yes, in theory they are playing for a win that would give them top spot in the group and a ticket straight to the All-Ireland quarter-finals. A lovely prize if they could manage it. But that’s what Kerry are playing for also, and there are two hopes – Bob and none – that Kerry are going to lose to a Division 2 team and deny themselves a precious weekend off.
So here’s the thing. Do Louth really, truly believe they can beat Kerry, and if not then how much energy and everything else do they expend when they will have a preliminary quarter-final six or seven days later, which they might actually have a reasonable chance of winning.
There is the not insignificant matter of Louth playing to finish in second place in the group and thereby give themselves home advantage in those preliminaries. A win for Monaghan over Meath coupled with a Louth loss would see scoring difference come into play between Louth and Monaghan. With a 20-point differential, Monaghan would surely have to beat Meath by about eight or nine points and then hope Louth lose by 11 or 12 for the Farney county to leap into second. That’s about the only thing that should keep Louth someway competitive while keeping an ear on matters in Cavan’s Breffni Park.
As to Kerry’s approach to Sunday, they will of course be as tuned in and professional as they were against Monaghan and Meath, notwithstanding how awkward an approach Louth might bring to Portlaoise.
Kerry’s team selection is instructive. In naming what is effectively the strongest and most experienced starting 15 available to him, Jack O’Connor is showing Louth due respect and taking no chances. Equally, it might be said, Kerry are firmly in Championship mode now, and Kerry’s starting team on Sunday is a nod to how they will be starting every game from here on. The notable absentee is Graham O’Sullivan who hasn’t recovered from an ankle injury to make the match day squad.
One assumes, too, that the Kerry management would like to be in such a position on Sunday that they might start withdrawing some key men by the three-quarter mark, to get them on ice for the All-Ireland quarter-final and also for O’Connor to get game minutes into one or two players that haven’t seen much championship action yet, so we might see more of Dylan Casey, Mike Breen, Dylan Geaney and Sean O’Brien.
It all folds into a curious situation whereby two teams are on the cusp of the All-Ireland series knock-outs and yet one senses that neither Kerry nor Louth will be going full tilt or showing their full hand on Sunday.
Louth manager Ger Brennan has played against Kerry several times as a Dublin footballer, but Sunday’s face-off with the Kingdom as manager of Louth is new territory for the two-time All-Ireland winner with the Dubs.
“Louth don’t get to play Kerry too often and they’ve been fortunate in the last two seasons to get the opportunity, regardless of last season’s result, but only one team last year who were in the preliminary quarter-final managed to win their quarter-final. Playing three games on the bounce, if we do end up in the preliminary quarter-final and then into the quarter-final, will be a tough challenge.
“But it’s an opportunity to play Kerry in the championship and to go and beat them. We have to put our best foot forward to ensure that we’re as close to Kerry as we can be, with a view to getting over the line.
“Coming out of Clones, there was a sense that we really could have, should have and would have won the game by five or six points. But, paradoxically, we were lucky to come out with a draw.
“To be on three points and qualified, if you’re looking at how things went last year, it’s evident that the lads and the group have matured, and that they’re starting to take these opportunities and make less mistakes. Hopefully we can put in a similar type of shift against Kerry.”
Systematically, Louth are expected to set-up as they did in the Leinster final, where they frustrated Dublin for long periods and remained in the contest for approximately an hour before falling away somewhat.
“You’re always trying to be pragmatic,” Brennan said. “You want to give the group an opportunity to play to their strengths. We’ve probably mixed and matched tactics through the Leinster campaign and National League. To be able to flow between one style and another based on what the opposition presents is probably where you’re looking to get to.
“If there is the opportunity to squeeze Kerry, we’ll do it, but we’ll also be conscious of Kerry being the aristocrats of GAA. That kicking game they have, their inside men, those outlet men, and their ability to win possession, get their head up and kick those diagonal or straight-line passes over 30 or 40 metres, that’s something we will have to be wary of if we’re caught out of possession further up the field.
“We’re hoping to mix and match but to ask questions of Kerry. We saw Cavan’s set-up against Dublin last week and it suggested they were focusing on the Roscommon game. Cavan won’t know if that worked until they play Roscommon in a few days’ time. That’s a risk we certainly won’t be taking.
“We’ll be looking to give our best performance against Kerry. There’s no fear but a healthy respect and an excitement of playing against the best teams. If you can win more than 50 per cent of the battles, you’ve done your job.”
The presumption is that even if Louth give their best performance it won’t be good enough to beat Kerry, even a Kerry team not performing at their optimum best. Like we said at the top, we cannot look beyond that 28-point drubbing last year and see how the gap can have closed all that much.
Kerry to win and top Group 4, and Louth not to lose by so much that it denies them second place and a home preliminary quarter-final. We think everyone would leave Portlaoise happy enough in those circumstances.
All-Ireland SFC Group 4 Round 3
Kerry v Louth
Sunday, June 16
O’Moore Park, Portlaoise at 3pm
Referee: Conor Lane (Cork)
