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Betting sites have improved Fine Gael’s odds of winning the most seats at the next Irish election following Leo Varadkar’s decision to quit as Taoiseach.
Mr Varadkar says he will step down as Fine Gael leader and Ireland’s prime minister once a successor from his party is found.
The move comes after he and fellow coalition parties suffered heavy defeats in two referendums earlier this year.
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“We have our limitations,” he said. “We give it everything until we can’t anymore and then we have to move on.”
Ireland is expected to hold an election in 2025 by the latest, although some politicians are already demanding a snap poll following Mr Varadkar’s decision to quit.
Yet bookmakers believe his party is now in a better state than it was had Mr Varadkar opted to campaign for re-election.
Irish General Election – Most Seats Odds
Snap Election In Ireland Not Likely
Political betting sites sites previously had Fine Gael at 13/2 to win most seats in the Dáil at the next election.
Those odds have now come in to 9/2, as have Fianna Fáil’s. Poll leaders Sinn Féin, meanwhile, have seen their odds widen from 1/8 to 1/4.
That still gives the Republican party a healthy lead which reflects their poll dominance, yet it’s not as strong as it once was.
Mr Varadkar’s approval rating had dropped to just 41% in recent weeks following the disastrous referendum campaign and result.
His party has already had to share power with Fianna Fáil – and the prime ministership with Micheál Martin – since the last election.
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Power sharing in Dublin hasn’t been easy and this parliament has resulted in a rise of support for Sinn Féin.
That, coupled with the possibility that Fine Gael could become only the third-biggest party after the next election, has put huge strain on Mr Varadkar.
It is perhaps not a surprise that he is choosing to step away before he is booted out of office.
Yet the timing has caused shockwaves through Ireland, as the country gears up for European and local elections in June.
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Who Will Win The Irish Election?
Mr Varadkar believes his party will fare better in the June elections with someone else at the helm.
Whether he’s right – and whether that translates into further success at a general election – it is too early to tell.
What is evident is that Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil have jumped on the shock news.
Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy said Fine Gael had been “in government for far too long” and the country needs “more than just a change of Taoiseach, we need a change of government”.
Fianna Fáil members, meanwhile, claim Mr Martin should now return to the job he handed to Mr Varadkar in 2022. The Greens, who make up the three-party government, are not calling for an election.
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RTÉ report that a new Taoiseach could be in place by as early as April 6. That would give the party time to correct itself before the summer elections.
But they still face a monumental challenge to win the most seats at the next general election. Mr Martin has ruled out a snap poll, so we’re still likely to have to wait until 2025.
Whether the three-party coalition can remain compact until then remains to be seen.
At this stage, betting apps are guessing that Fine Gael will come out better for Mr Varadkar’s departure.
Yet Sinn Féin still has a commanding lead in the polls and the odds markets. They remain on course to claim most seats – even if it’s not enough to rule as a majority.
Taoiseach After Next Election Betting Odds
Indeed, betting on the Taoiseach after the next election is fraught with inconsistencies.
One would imagine Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald getting the post, but that would either require an outright majority or an unlikely coalition.
Mr Martin’s odds have come in to 4/1 with BoyleSports as Fianna Fáil seek to capitalise from Mr Varadkar’s departure.
His price will almost certainly fall further if Fianna Fáil succeed in returning him to the prime ministership before the next election.
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Simon Harris, Paschal Donohoe and Helen McEntree are three top names in the next Fine Gael leader odds.
They may well land the top job at the same time, although keeping it after the next election is a different matter entirely.
This is a near-impossible market to predict right now because so many pieces remain in the air following Mr Varadkar’s exit.
What is for sure, thought, is new betting sites will be keeping a close eye on Dublin over the next few weeks.
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