Job growth is slowing, but disparities persist across cities

Labour markets are forecast to cool across the world’s major cities this year, marking the end of the Covid-19 catchup for some while others face the effects of demographic constraints. This trend of cooling employment growth is expected to largely continue over 2024–2028—with a few notable exceptions—but cities are still set to outperform their national economies.

What you will learn:

• In Europe, city labour markets have been remarkably robust over the past three years; but 2024 marks the start of a slowdown. Major cities in Europe—like Dublin, Manchester, London, and Copenhagen—will be able to defy this trend. Still, in the medium term, productivity rather than employment will be the key driver of GDP growth, especially in central and eastern (CEE) cities.
• Employment growth in the US should stay positive in all but a couple of metros in 2024, but rates are set to cool in the medium term. As baby boomers retire and fewer workers enter the labour force, lacklustre working-age population growth will act as a drag. While certain Sunbelt markets will excel in the medium term for both GDP and jobs, weaker job prospects for office-using sectors means tech-heavy metros will instead look to productivity to drive their GDP growth.
• In Asia Pacific (APAC), city employment growth has also slowed in 2024. Going forward, demographics are expected to limit employment growth in advanced cities like Seoul, Taipei, and Singapore. However, the medium-term outlook differs for emerging cities, with Indian ones at the forefront: Delhi and Bengaluru will have the strongest job prospects of Asian cities, thanks to their productive office-based sectors.