Don’t let the eerie quiet build-up fool you. While the Irish and Kiwis share a warm relationship, Johnny Sexton’s efforts to sell his autobiography in recent weeks fanned the flames of this latest, brewing contest between the world’s first and third-ranked teams.
The Springboks will forever remain the All Blacks greatest rugby rivals. But amid the the current bad-blood backdrop, if there’s one team the All Blacks would love to humble above any other, it’s Ireland.
From Peter O’Mahony sledging Sam Cane as a poor man’s Richie McCaw, as Ireland secured their first series win in New Zealand two years ago – a result that cost two All Blacks assistant coaches their jobs – to Rieko Ioane telling Sexton not to miss his flight home and enjoy retirement after last year’s gripping World Cup quarter-final, the lingering animosity is real and raw.
If you dish it out, you have to be able to take it.
While that war of words paints the picture of genuine heat that contrasts the fast-approaching northern winter, the strongest message either side can send this weekend is through actions and the result.
Nothing stings more than a loss.
Regardless of individual tensions, this is where Ireland’s wrath boils – the desperation for redemption after yet again failing to progress beyond the World Cup quarterfinal stage.
Never before, having broken their glass ceiling by beating the All Blacks for the first time in 2016 in Chicago, has there been a more expectant, confident, Irish rugby public as those who flocked to Stade de France last October.
Those draped in green throughout Paris that day had Ireland winning at a canter. The sense of deflation when Sam Whitelock flopped his long limbs over the ball to secure the match-winning penalty was, therefore, palpable.
Just ask Sexton.
Harnessing the emerald mist emotion, and attempting to control potentially frayed tempers, will be a fine line for both teams to tread in the Dublin rematch.
Nothing can alter last year’s World Cup result. Ireland must wait another three years for the chance to end their quarterfinal hoodoo.
Victory over the All Blacks at a heaving Aviva Stadium would, however, evoke a cathartic release. And Ireland are heavy favourites to achieve exactly that.
With such rich recent history subplots spring from everywhere.
Sexton can’t stay away, joining the Irish coaching team in a part-time capacity to mentor their playmakers to sprinkle another layer of spice on the simmering stew. And then there’s the highly regarded Andrew Goodman, Robertson’s former Crusaders assistant coach, in enemy camp.
Goodman spent five years alongside Robertson at the Crusaders before joining Irish powerhouse Leinster and assuming the national attack brief from Mike Catt this year. Ireland, of course, recruited fellow Kiwis Bundee Aki, James Lowe and Jamison Gibson-Park – all of whom have since emerged as central figures.
Goodman, though, will bring innovation and harness intel on Robertson, and former Crusaders turned All Blacks assistants Jason Ryan and Scott Hansen.
All Blacks assistant Jason Holland knows the Irish psyche well after playing 102 games and contesting two European finals in the Munster midfield, and spending time with the province as an assistant coach, but that stint finished 12 years ago when he moved home.
On the pitch, almost everything is stacked against the All Blacks this weekend. Their backs are pressed to the Dublin wall.
From venturing to the Irish capital, where they lost their last two outings in 2021 and 2018, to recovering on a six-day turnaround from their knife-edge success at Twickenham, to countering significant injury setbacks to the influential Beauden Barrett and Codie Taylor, the All Blacks must overcome adversity to prevail in their toughest northern tour test.
While the All Blacks savoured success at the 2019 and 2023 World Cups, Ireland have won five of their last nine encounters to illustrate how this rivalry has swung.
Ireland are fresh, with starting tighthead prop Tadhg Furlong and hooker Dan Sheehan their absences, and hungry to avenge their hurt, having waited more than a year for this rematch.
With 19 straight wins in Dublin – one loss from their last 26 tests at home – Ireland will be confident of continuing that run.
Give Ireland their dues. They are a proud, progressive, intelligent, interconnected rugby nation well structured for sustained success. Despite their World Cup frailties, Ireland under Andy Farrell have consistently set standards between pinnacle tournaments.
In July they did what the All Blacks could not by taking a test off the world champion Springboks on home soil after claiming successive Six Nations crowns.
An underdog triumph in Dublin would, therefore, mark the most notable milestone of the All Blacks patchy Robertson era.
There were signs amid their frustrating discipline and mistake-riddled performance at Twickenham that the All Blacks are developing their identity. They scored four tries to one against England (one called back for Caleb Clarke’s intentional knockdown).
Attacking intent, keeping the ball alive, playing at pace, is at the forefront of their vision – and in Will Jordan, Mark Tele’a and Wallace Sititi, the All Blacks possess some of the most dynamic threats in the game.
Robertson’s vastly new coaching team and systems were always going to take time to bed in. Growing pains have been widely evident during the All Blacks struggles to deliver consistently this year.
While the All Blacks may have cracked their problematic second-half fade code by bolstering their bench, their ability to counter-rush defence, strike the right balance of kicking and effectively manage tight, tense tests remains in the spotlight.
To this poignant moment it’s been a rollercoaster year for Robertson’s All Blacks. Three losses from 11 attempts leaves this season delicately poised.
Winning at Twickenham, however unconvincing the dramatic finish, must breed confidence and solidify internal belief of progress.
Upsetting Ireland at home would be a monumental leap forward, potentially the making of Robertson’s team.
A loss, though, depending on the circumstance, could rattle those foundations and increase pressure to win another headline test in Paris next week.
The banter and brutality, the fierce rivalry, ensures this test is not to be missed.
All Blacks: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Mark Tele’a, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Tamaiti Williams
Replacements: 16 George Bell, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Samipeni Finau, 21 Cam Roigard, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Stephen Perofeta
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park,
1 Andrew Porter, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 3 Finlay Bealham, 4 Joe McCarthy, 5 James Ryan, 6 Tadhg Beirne, 7 Josh van der Flier, 8 Caelan Doris (c)
Replacements: Rob Herring, Cian Healy, Tom O’Toole, Iain Henderson, Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Ciarán Frawley, Jamie Osborne
