The number of deaths due to heat are estimated to rise from 30 to 563 per year in Ireland by the end of the century if the world warms by 3C, a study has revealed.
It also outlines that cold-related deaths in Ireland are predicted to double from 3,974 to 7,696 per year by the year 2100.
Modelling data from 30 European countries also suggests heat-related deaths could triple in the continent by the end of the century under current climate policies, increasing from 43,729 to 128,809 per year.
In the same scenario, deaths attributed to cold would remain high, with a slight decrease from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100, scientists said.
Dr Juan-Carlos Ciscar, of the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, said: ‘Our analysis reveals that the ratio of cold-heat deaths will shift dramatically over the course of this century, with those attributed to heat increasing in all parts of Europe and surging in some areas. At the same time, cold-related deaths will decline slightly overall.
‘Our study looks at more than 1,000 regions across 30 countries, enabling the identification of hotspots where people will be worst affected in the future.’
Although most countries have pledged to curb emissions to slow down global warming, a United Nations analysis published last year suggests the world is still on track to warm by nearly 3C by the end of the century. Met Éireann data showed, at the end of 2023, that Ireland had its warmest year on record for the second year running since records began in 1900.
It was also one of the wettest years on record – since 1941 – which saw numerous flooding episodes across the country.
Dr David Garcia-Leon, also of the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, said: ‘There is a critical need for the development of more targeted policies to protect these areas and members of society most at risk from temperature extremes.’
