“Considering our starting point and general polling, I feel better going into this than I thought I would,” says Labour’s Fingal TD Duncan Smith on the eve of the party’s think-in. Labour gathers today for the annual event, held by parties to mark the start of the political year, fine tune strategy and press home key messages – this time, on the verge of a general election.
“People are open to us again. I don’t necessarily know does that mean they will definitely punt for us,” says Limerick councillor and general election candidate Conor Sheehan.
Even discounting pre-season boosterism, there are grounds for guarded optimism, at least relative to recent years, which saw the party on the precipice of electoral oblivion. The local and European elections saw Labour hold its own on councils, and it hopes Aódhan Ó Ríordáin’s success in the Dublin MEP race could be a watershed. Party figures point to an ability to build campaigns for Ó Ríordáin and Ivana Bacik, to “create a narrative and transmit that to the electorate”.
That said, both had national profile, whereas in the general election, it will defend three of seven seats without incumbents. In Wexford, George Lawlor has retained former leader Brendan Howlin’s base of Wexford town. Optimists say the retiring Sean Sherlock’s Cork East seat could be effectively retained albeit in Cork North Central, if it can get out the vote on the north side of the city and alloy it with Sherlock’s transplanted Mallow base.
In Ó Ríordáin’s old Dublin Bay North constituency, the party is known to have unsuccessfully cast around for a high-profile replacement, seeking figures from the sporting world and further afield. Shane Folan, twice unsuccessful in local contests, is the likely candidate. It is hard to see the party retaining all three – in truth, one is a more likely outcome, with other incumbents also in a battle.
When it comes to new blood, insiders tip prospects like Laura Harmon in Cork South Central, Rob O’Donoghue in Fingal West and Ciarán Ahern in Dublin South West among a dozen or so constituencies where Labour believes it is in the running. The most optimistic view is that the party could return 10-12 TDs. But the most pessimistic private take – in a party always capable of dour self-assessment – was as low as two deputies, with sources sketching out a scenario where Labour struggles to attract attention as Sinn Féin soaks up space as the main opposition force and smaller parties fight for crumbs from the table. “It’s much more crowded and much more difficult to carve out why people should vote Labour,” concedes Ó Ríordáin, who argues the party must be “steadfast in our belief system” to capture votes.
Bacik’s elevation to leader following a putsch against Alan Kelly in 2021 was dramatic, but there are concerns within the parliamentary party that she is yet to put an authoritative stamp on Labour and to stake out ground for the party. She is now longer in the post than the leaders of Fine Gael, the Green Party and the Social Democrats, but one party figure believes that even Bacik “struggles to know what Project Ivana is”, criticising her for having “no proper vision”. Others say she retains support in the party but has spread herself too thin, struggling to define herself as other than a “D4 liberal lawyer” for voters.
There is also a view among some that Labour needs to be more forthright about co-ordinating with other parties of the centre left – namely the Greens and the Social Democrats. Ó Ríordáin says these parties should not be “spending all our time trying to convince the electorate there’s a massive difference [between them]”. After the election, he says Labour’s first phone call will be to the Greens and Social Democrats, before wider government formation talks take place.
Whether there is anything to discuss is in the balance.
