Despite much talk of change and new energy over the last three weeks these figures are glistening with a stern familiarity.
The election campaign that trundled rather than glided along has unsurprisingly served up little that is new, according to this RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, Trinity College Dublin Exit Poll carried out by Ipsos B&A.
The three bigger parties are bunched together just like they were in 2020 but this time their vote is down on the last general election.
Irish politics had followed a rather similar pattern for decades until that election gale blew the old structures apart and three similar sized parties emerged.
It is no longer novel, and it looks like it is becoming the norm.
These figures make good reading for Sinn Féin which has steadied its support in this campaign and on 21.1% support, this poll puts them top of the pile.
However, it is still some distance off the support levels the party was chalking up in opinion polls a year ago.
Plus, it makes the party’s path to power without either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael look extremely challenging.
Those two parties have of course said that they won’t talk government formation with Sinn Féin.
The chart below compares polls conducted most recently across the campaign against the Exit Poll.
Click to activate or deactivate polls, hover your mouse or tap on a circle for additional detail.
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Fianna Fáil people were confident of making gains and at least finishing in first place, but that is not guaranteed based on these figures, with the party in third spot on 19.5% albeit with a margin of error of 1.6%.
However, the final outcome will as always hinge on those last seats which will most likely be filled late on Sunday or Monday.
This result is a long way too from the warm summer breeze that propelled Simon Harris and his party up the rankings through the summer and autumn months.
But given the bruising campaign Fine Gael experienced this is a decent result with the party recording 21% in this poll of 5,018 voters.
It does all make the formation of the next government somewhat tricky in terms of the core task of getting to 87 seats which will be a majority in the expanded Dáil.
Based on these figures, there is unlikely to be a major gap in the number of TDs each party finishes with.
A gap of no more than six seats is viewed as the territory that allows for the smooth restoration of a rotating Taoiseach.
It is notable too that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are transferring strongly to each other.
Where does the Exit Poll say second preferences from the three big parties are likely to go?
This graph shows what first preference voters for the three big parties told Ipsos B&A they had done with their second preference.
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The early reading of the data suggests that a coalition of four parties might be needed to form a government.
Alternatively, a three-party government with the support of independents may also be a necessary option.
Labour looks to have 5% support based on this poll, and the Greens have 4%. This would indicate that these parties, who have committed to forming an alliance after the election, could be an effective combined bloc.
The Social Democrats is the strongest of the smaller parties in this poll on 5.8%.
Independents on 12.7% support will again be a significant part of the next Dáil, it is just unclear yet if they will be significant players in the formation of the next government.
Aontú are on 3.6%, which might make its hopes of gains difficult but certainly not impossible.
Independent Ireland is on 2.2% and PBP-Solidarity are on 3.1%.
Those figures suggest that once again those parties’ chances of winning seats rely heavily on the strength of individual candidates in key constituencies.
