Analysis: The Urban Sense project aims to produce an urban-scale greenhouse gas modelling and monitoring system across the capital
By Gerald Mills, UCD
The 2015 Paris Agreement set mandatory targets for national signatories to radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to offset the worst effects of human-caused climate change. These are chiefly associated with fossil fuel energy use and change in landcover and landuse generally, but the evidence shows that anthropogenic CO2 emissions (which is the most significant greenhouse gas emission) are concentrated in cities.
Although urbanised areas occupy less than 3% of the ice-free land area, they are home to most of the world’s population and emit more than 70% of CO2. The source for these emissions is mostly fossil fuel used for energy, which is used to produce electricity, heat and cool buildings, produce materials and run transport systems. In addition, as centres of trade, cities import (and export) goods and services that have ’embodied’ carbon, that reflects the energy used to create that product. Cities are therefore seen as a key location to apply mitigation policies to change energy and transport systems at all scales, and to reduce resource use.
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But to design and test the effectiveness of these policies, we need a scientific infrastructure that can assess emissions by economic sector at a suitable scale, model their transport in the atmosphere and measure their concentration. This approach is the cornerstone of air quality management systems, thoiugh greenhouse gas emissions are not treated as air pollutants and information on the response of the atmosphere to local emissions is weak.
In Ireland, we have committed to halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, when compared to 1990, and to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 in line with EU objectives. In addition, the outsize responsibility of cities is reflected in the EU Mission, which aims to create 100 climate-neutral cities by 2030, 20 years ahead of wider EU commitments. Both Dublin and Cork are part of this mission.
To place these issues in an Irish context; greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 are estimated to be 55 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2eq), which is mostly comprised of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that are associated with urban and agricultural activities, respectively. Current policies are designed to address emissions from economic sectors, which are assessed by converting resource use (e.g. fossil fuel) into equivalent emissions. Separately, the capacity of the natural landscape (especially trees) to offset these emissions is assessed.
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However, this approach is limited as it does not allow us to test the potential for bespoke policies at local level and does not measure the impact of policies on emissions concentration. A complete scientific infrastructure that links emissions and impacts using landscape-atmosphere models is needed. Some elements of this infrastructure exist in Ireland, where we have observation programmes that measure greenhouse gas concentrations at stations like Mace Head (Galway) and Carnsore Point (Wexford) and observe vegetation-atmosphere interactions at Oak Park (Carlow).
The goal of the Urban Sense project is to create this necessary scientific infrastructure for Dublin and place its emissions in the context of Ireland’s national targets. It’s part of a Research Ireland-funded project (TerrainAI at Maynooth University), which is examining emissions and landscape management at the scale of the island. It is also part of the NexSys project at UCD that has a focus on climate change and cities. Urban Sense is also working with Dublin City as an EU mission city to provide the scientific evidence it needs to develop and test mitigation policies.
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An overview of the Urban Sense project from Stephanie Keogh and the Terrain-AI team based in the National Centre for Geocomputation at Maynooth University
The project has a modelling and measurement component. The model simulates weather patterns across Ireland at a scale of 1 km2 and can account for net emissions from different land-cover (grasslands, forest and cities). Within Dublin city, a different model is applied which simulates traffic along city streets and emissions into the overlying air. To complement this, a series of inexpensive monitors (20 currently) designed by an Irish company (Edgeliot) are located around the city to record greenhouse gas concentration.
These monitors utilise rooftop mobile phone masts in the city and use the associated communication network to capture the state of the atmosphere in real time. When combined with simulated emissions and wind flow from the model, the measurements will allow researchers to identify transport sources and identify opportunities for traffic management and strategic tree planting.
Urban Sense has just begun and elements of the project are still being developed. However, considerable progress is being made to provide a first urban-scale greenhouse gas modelling and monitoring system, which would be a first.
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Dr Gerald Mills is Associate Professor in the School of Geography at UCD. He is a Research Ireland awardee
The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ
