The world “needs an exit ramp off the highway to climate hell”, after a new report suggested a strong chance we will temporarily exceed the limit scientists say is the tipping point to stave off the worst of climate change in the next five years.
This was the warning from the UN Secretary General as new datasets showed that we continue to see record temperatures recorded each month. While we will not permanently breach these key climate targets yet, it is likely at least one of the next five years will beat 2023 to be the warmest on record.
The landmark Paris Agreement of 2015 set a 1.5C rise in global temperatures compared to 1850-1900 as the limit to avoid the very worst fall-out from climate change.
Scientists have repeatedly warned that warming of 1.5C risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather, with every fraction of a degree mattering in this context.
Now, a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said there is an 80% likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
SUSTAINABILITY & CLIMATE
Check out our Sustainability and Climate Change Hub where you will find the latest news, features, opinions and analysis on this topic from across the various Irish Examiner topic desks and their team of specialist writers and columnists.
Back in 2015, such a chance was deemed close to zero. But, ever since then, the possibility has risen further and further as the effects of climate change have worsened.
UN secretary General Antonio Guterres said that this data shows “we are playing Russian roulette with our planet”.
“And the good news is that we have control of the wheel,” he said. “The battle to limit temperature rise to 1.5C will be won or lost in the 2020s — under the watch of leaders today.”
However, the WMO report comes as separate new data shows that Ireland had its hottest ever May in 2024 and that last month was the 12th consecutive month with record high temperatures globally.
Met Éireann said May 2024 was the warmest May on record with an average temperature of 13.08C. This is only the second time average temperatures in Ireland have exceeded 13C in May.
Responding to this latest data, Professor Peter Thorne, from the ICARUS Climate Research Centre in Maynooth University, said that “if you play at the roulette table, you can be lucky for a streak, but your luck eventually runs out”.
“Ask the poor people in southern Germany dealing with epic floods,” he said. “Ask the people in Mexico and parts of Africa sweltering with record-breaking temperatures. You realise it’s pot luck as to whether we’re the ones suffering or not.
“Look at Midleton last October and the very wet winter we’ve had, both made more severe by human influences of climate change.
Mr Thorne added that the latest data from the WMO would likely be “ignored again” by world leaders given the “strong vested interests in the status quo”.
“Nobody claimed this would be easy,” he said. “But fundamentally there’s no option. The cost of inaction will be far, far greater in the long run.”
